An unusually flimsy bit of analysis comes to us today from Timothy Williams of the New York Times, who claims that Samarra, the site of the 2006 shrine bombings that kicked off the worst of Iraq’s sectarian violence, has now transformed into a tranquil enclave to be emulated throughout the country.  This claim is interesting, especially as Timothy basically admits that tranquility is enforced by a heavy US military presence, and the Americans are the one group in Iraq who are definitely on the way out.

Never mind the fact that the city is sectioned off by tall, dusty concrete barriers, or the fact that its inhabitants are almost all Sunni anyway.  Mr. Williams also fails to consider the possibility that in a country like Iraq where the insurgency is highly mobile and has limited resources to burn, peace in one area could simply mean that there are better or easier targets elsewhere.  In other words, the fact that Qaeda is not hitting Samarra does not mean that the situation there is great, it just means that they can get more bang for their buck in other cities, such as Baghdad.  The Times article acknowledges that unemployment is sky-high and the people of Samarra are on edge.

Whether quiet in Samarra depends on the intermittent raiding and patrolling by soon-to-be-withdrawn US forces or not, it is a unique city like all Iraqi cities which means that any successes there have limited cross-applicability.  The Times piece is an interesting look inside Samarra as events elsewhere in the country roll on, but the eye-catching headline claim, whatever the motive, simply does not add up.