Beijing’s promise to veto new sanctions on Iran is one more sign of increased Chinese assertiveness, and may eventually help the growing economic power-house secure another oil supply outside the US sphere.  It is also an ironic twist in the history of Security Council action in the region, as China take’s the American role of the lone hold-out.

The Beijing-Tehran relationship will probably never come much to resemble the ties between Washington and Tel Aviv, but some parallels are interesting.  An international consensus has been rallied and would condemn a rogue actor in the region, except the rogue has a super-power patron.  It is also interesting that the new veto beneficiary (Iran) may well be described as the arch-rival of the old one (Israel), the two glaring at each other from either side of an Arab jumble which is mostly hostile to both of them.

This is not the set-up for a Middle Eastern gunfight at the O.K. Corral; at least it does not look that way yet.  Western media mis-translations aside, Iran is not very likely to use nukes on Israel even if it got them, and Israel has little incentive to bomb Iran unless it can take out the program all at once (it can’t).  But even if a head-on confrontation is not imminent, the power structure in the region is inexorably changing.  This incident is yet another indicator that even within the Near East, the US war on Jihadism may be a costly distraction that does not address the main threat to its interests.